The wheat market is tense: demand is growing, but farmers are holding back sales

As of July 4, 2025, Ukrainian farmers have harvested 277.8 thousand tons of wheat from 107.4 thousand hectares, with an average yield of 2.58 tons/ha. However, despite the active harvesting, the market remains tense.

Experts from Spike Brokers note:

“Buyer demand is growing actively, but supply volumes are limited — farmers are in no hurry to sell, and there is virtually no physical grain on the market. Without covered volumes, demand is showing heightened activity.”

Current prices for new crop wheat (DAP ports):

• Ukraine (Odesa) — milling wheat 12.5%: $212–214/t
• Ukraine (Odesa) — milling wheat 11.5%: $210–212/t
• Ukraine (Odesa) — feed wheat: $202–204/t
• Germany (NW) — feed wheat: €195–205/t
• Netherlands (South) — feed wheat: €185–202/t

A similar situation was observed last week: demand for new crop wheat increased, while farmers continue to limit sales. This creates a favorable background for further price growth expectations.

In southern Ukraine, due to slightly lower yields, supply is even tighter. This has caused a slight but steady increase in export quotations.
In particular, last week, export purchase prices with delivery to seaports increased by 50–100 UAH/t, reaching:

• Milling wheat — 9,900–10,100 UAH/t (~$208–211/t)
• Feed wheat — 9,400–9,500 UAH/t (~$199–201/t)

Experts highlight that farmers’ reluctance to sell forces traders to pay a premium of 100–200 UAH/t for prompt delivery.

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What does this situation mean for the market?

• Inter-seasonal stock decline — Farmers are holding onto grain, expecting higher prices.
• Increased demand — Buyers, including traders and millers, are becoming more active, partly due to expectations of further price increases.
• Limited supply — The low level of physical grain on the market fuels price volatility.
• Price premiums — For prompt delivery, traders are willing to pay extra, especially closer to ports.

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Conclusion

The market situation combines active demand with limited supply — a classic recipe for a price surge. Farmers, by holding grain, are creating a shortage, while buyers are ready to pay more to secure supply.

In such an environment:

• Traders should plan their procurement carefully, as price quotes may shift rapidly.
• Farmers should maintain a balance between expected profit and the risk of an overheated market.