Sunflower Harvest in Southern Ukraine: Record Prices, Low Yields, and Processing Risks

Sunflower Prices Reach a Three-Month High

The Ukrainian sunflower market is experiencing a sharp price surge. According to APK-Inform, over the past week, the value of this oilseed crop has climbed to its highest level in the last three months. The main drivers are:

• Rising sunflower oil prices in both domestic and international markets;
• Strong demand from processors;
• Limited supply due to reduced volumes of quality raw materials.

Procurement Race Among Processors

Companies that remain active in the market are forced to compete fiercely for the remaining stocks of last year’s and the new harvest.

• Initial purchase prices start at 26,500 UAH/t CPT;
• Most actual deals are made in the range of 27,000–27,600 UAH/t CPT;
• Farmers have raised asking prices to 27,500–29,000 UAH/t, excluding delivery costs.

This price jump creates additional pressure on processors, particularly smaller ones, whose margins have already narrowed significantly.

Weather Risks and Crop Losses

The situation in southern Ukraine has been exacerbated by a prolonged summer drought. In many fields, uneven ripening of sunflower heads, smaller seed sizes, and lower oil content are being observed. This has already led to:

• A reduction in the potential gross harvest;
• Increased competition for crops in the central and northern regions;
• Further price growth in the coming weeks.

Early Harvest Results: Alarmingly Low Yields

The sunflower harvest has begun in southern Ukraine with disappointing results: 2–3 centners per hectare (200–300 kg/ha). By comparison, in previous years, the national average exceeded 20 centners per hectare.
Such critically low yields may lead to a shortage of raw materials for processing plants, especially in the autumn-winter period when they typically operate at full capacity.

Impact on the Processing Industry

The low harvest in southern regions creates the risk of underutilization of oil extraction plants. If the situation is not offset by harvests from other regions, possible consequences include:

• Higher sunflower oil prices both in Ukraine and on export markets;
• Reduced processing volumes;
• Increased competition for raw materials between large and small processors.

Outlook for the 2025/26 Season

Analysts forecast that the further course of the season will depend on yields in the central and eastern regions. If weather conditions there are favorable, this could partially offset losses in the south. However, the market is expected to remain tense and prices high, benefiting producers but posing challenges for processors and exporters.

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