Sunflower Crop Conditions in Ukraine: Regional Overview and Expected Yields – 2025
07.08.2025
General Overview
In 2025, the total sown area under sunflower is approximately 5.17–5.5 million hectares, which is on par with or slightly higher than the previous year, according to AgroReview and MAS Seeds Ukraine. However, due to prolonged drought, the production forecast has been revised down to 13.6–13.7 million tonnes, which is only about 7% higher than in 2024. According to the National Agency ASAP Agri, the earlier forecast of 14.1 million tonnes has been downgraded due to critical moisture deficits.
Southern and Eastern Regions
These are key production regions, accounting for up to 50% of the national area, and are experiencing the most severe conditions:
- In Dnipropetrovsk region, soil moisture reserves have dropped below 160 mm, which experts consider critically low. Vladyslav Cherchel, Director of the Institute of Agriculture of the Steppe Zone, stated: “Plants simply won’t survive without water. In our region, even 1 tonne per hectare would already be considered a good result.”
- Due to heat and lack of rainfall in Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa regions, yields are expected to range between 1–1.5 t/ha, while in Dnipropetrovsk region it could fall below 1 t/ha.
Central Regions
Conditions in central Ukraine are moderate — the moisture deficit is less severe. Expected yields are about 1.2–1.5 t/ha. This region is expected to partially compensate for losses in the south, although not significantly exceeding the national average.
Northern and Western Regions
Favorable weather conditions allowed for compensation of the southern losses. Chernihiv and Sumy regions experienced regular rainfall, supporting good crop development. In the western regions, some farmers adjusted their crop rotation by planting sunflower after corn due to local climate specifics.
Here, yields are projected at 1.5–2 t/ha, sometimes even above the average.
National Outlook
- Under optimal conditions, total production could reach 13–14 million tonnes, according to analysts from AgroReview and UkrAgroConsult.
- However, actual output, considering the drought, is more realistically estimated at 13.6–13.7 million tonnes.
Market Prices and Profitability
- Current prices for new sunflower harvests are around $580–590/t (DAP Ukraine, VAT included).
- Forward contracts are active at $540–560/t, helping farmers mitigate currency risks.
- Sunflower ranks in the top 3 most profitable crops in 2025, alongside winter rapeseed and corn, with profitability around 106% and income up to UAH 40,000/ha — thanks to oil content bonuses (up to UAH 350/t per % of oil) and high-oleic premiums (up to UAH 5,000/t).
Summary Table
| Region | Conditions | Expected Yield (t/ha) |
|---|---|---|
| South, East | Severe drought | < 1.0 – 1.5 |
| Central | Moderate | ~1.2 – 1.5 |
| North, West | Favorable | ~1.5 – 2.0 |
| Ukraine overall | — | ≈ 1.3 – 1.5 |
Conclusion
In 2025, sunflower crop conditions across Ukraine are mixed: improvements were recorded in the central, northern, and western regions, while the south and east suffered significantly from drought. The average expected yield is about 1.3–1.5 t/ha, with a national harvest of around 13.6–13.7 million tonnes. Despite weather challenges, sunflower remains a profitable crop with significant potential — especially if weather conditions improve in the coming weeks.
Sources: Based on forecasts from NAS, ASAP Agri, UkrAgroConsult, AgroReview, and SuperAgronom.com.