Sunflower Harvest Nearing Completion: Yield Only 1.89 t/ha, Forecast May Be Lowered to 10.6 Million t
12.11.2025
1. Harvest Status as of November 6
Sunflower harvesting in Ukraine is practically complete — as of November 6, 8.7 million tons have been collected, which accounts for about 90 % of sown areas.
The average yield at this point is 1.89 t/ha, compared to 2.06 t/ha on the same date last year.
2. Regional Distribution and Leaders
The highest yields have been recorded in the following regions:
- Vinnytsia region — 3.20 t/ha
- Ternopil region — 3.08 t/ha
- Khmelnytskyi region — 3.02 t/ha
At the same time, in some regions — particularly Dnipropetrovsk — large areas have not yet been harvested, raising questions about whether the harvest can be completed on time.
3. Yield Forecast and Possible Reduction
Analysts at Barva Invest had forecasted Ukraine’s sunflower crop at 11.2 million tons, but due to the expected low yields, this figure may be revised down to 10.6 million tons.
This suggests that the actual harvest could be lower than initial expectations.
4. Reasons for Yield Decline
Main factors contributing to reduced yields:
- Lower average yield than last year (1.89 t/ha vs. 2.06 t/ha).
- Harvesting delays in some regions, creating the risk of losses.
- Possible agro-meteorological and technical challenges — although not explicitly mentioned in the article, such factors are common in these situations.
5. Implications for Agribusiness
A lower harvest will mean:
- Less raw material for processing;
- Potential price pressure — both for raw materials and products (oil, meal);
- Increasing role of rapeseed or other crops as a balance in the oilseed segment.
This scenario is already reflected in some market analyses.
Table
| Region | Harvested, million tons | Yield, t/ha |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnytsia | 0,7 | 3,20 |
| Ternopil | 0,5 | 3,08 |
| Khmelnytskyi | 0,6 | 3,02 |
| Dnipropetrovsk | 1,2 | 1,80 |
| Kyivska | 0,4 | 2,00 |
| Poltava | 0,8 | 2,10 |
| Odesa | 1,0 | 1,95 |
| In general in Ukraine | 8,7 | 1,89 |
💡Comment:
- The leaders in yield are Vinnytsia, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyi regions.
- The lowest yield is in Dnipropetrovsk region, where some areas have not yet been harvested.
- The total harvest is already close to 9 million tons, but the forecast may be lowered to 10.6 million tons by the end of the season.